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Playoff Pinch Hits: American League Wild-Card Tale Of Two Underdogs

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By Sam McPherson

The 1980s were a long time ago in terms of baseball years: performance-enhancing drug use wasn’t the big issue in terms of chemical substances, most MLB teams played in multi-purpose municipal stadiums, and the uniform pants were really tight.

It also was the last decade that the 2014 American League Wild Card participants — the Kansas City Royals and Oakland Athletics — each won a World Series. Here are a the story lines going into Tuesday night’s Wild Card matchup.

1. Feels like Game Seven

The Royals host the Athletics in the AL wild-card game that will feel like a Game Seven, even if it isn’t. Kansas City will be rocking with its first playoff appearance since winning the Series in 1985. And if you thought the O.co Coliseum in Oakland was loud for AL Division Series games in 2012 and 2013, Kauffman Stadium might get louder. (Have you ever been to a Kansas City Chiefs’ game in nearby Arrowhead Stadium? Enough said.)

2. Long time coming

It’s been a long time since the Royals or the A’s won it all — the two teams used to do battle in the old AL West. The Royals won the division seven times between 1976 and 1985, culminating in the World Series championship 29 years ago with a seven-game thriller against in-state rival St. Louis. The A’s have won the AL West 16 times since divisional play began in 1969 — but Oakland has emerged victorious just twice in ten postseason series since winning the Bay Bridge matchup over the San Francisco Giants in 1989 with a four-game sweep.

3. Small payrolls

The A’s and the Royals are linked by this singular reality in 2014: they have small payrolls, and they’re trying to unseat the big boys at the table the old-fashioned way. Kansas City started the season 19th in payroll, Oakland 25th — yet here they are now. Seven of the 10 teams in the playoffs have $100 million-plus payrolls, leaving the AL’s underdogs to fight it out in the wild-card round for early playoff scraps.

4. Big-name pitchers

Both teams will start big-name pitchers tonight. Kansas City’s James Shields (14-8, 3.21 ERA) and Oakland’s Jon Lester (16-11, 2.46 ERA) were acquired in big trades for just such an occasion: “Big Game” James won a game for the Tampa Bay Rays in the 2008 World Series, while Lester was 3-0 in his Series starts for the Boston Red Sox in 2007 and 2013. Those are guys you want on the mound for a Game Seven, too.

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5. What’s at stake

It will feel like a Game Seven because the loser goes home, literally: the winner advances to the ALDS to face the Los Angeles Angels on Thursday in Anaheim for the start of a five-game series. For the A’s, they may just feel lucky to be here after their 16-30 finish to the season, while the Royals are just happy to be here after a 29-year postseason drought.

6. Momentum coming in

This is Oakland’s third straight playoff appearance after losing in Game Five of the ALDS two years in a row to the Detroit Tigers at home. The A’s were midseason favorites to win it all, but they posted the worst second-half winning percentage ever for a playoff team. Meanwhile, Kansas City went 41-27 in the second half to almost overtake the Tigers for the AL Central title.

7. Matching up

Single-elimination games like this are a coin flip, though: the Royals won the season series (5-2), but they faced the A’s when Oakland was mired in a deep August slump. Oakland has the better run-scoring offense and better team ERA overall, but Kansas City’s defense is stellar — and the Royals steal bases like they own them.

Take your pick for the winner here, but keep this in mind: both teams are capable of being very good in a short series, and it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see the winner of this game go all the way to the World Series.

That’s how you know it’s October baseball even if the calendar still says September.

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Sam McPherson is a freelance writer covering all things Oakland A’s. His work can be found on Examiner.com.


Playoff Pinch Hits: Giants And Pirates Like It’s 1971 All Over Again?

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By Sam McPherson

The 1971 National League Championship Series featured the eventual World Series champions from Pittsburgh against the San Francisco Giants. Back then, the NLCS was just a best-of-five affair, and the Pirates won it in four games before beating the Baltimore Orioles in seven to win the title.

For the first time since then, the Giants and the Pirates will face off in the playoffs again — but this time, it’s just a one-game, wild-card playoff elimination for the right to go to the NL Division Series and its five-game format.

Oh, how times have changed for baseball.

The goal, however, remains the same for all teams playing in October: win any which way you can so you can live to fight another day and hold that big shiny trophy over your collective heads.

1. The Giants and the Legend of Even Years

San Francisco won unlikely World Series titles in 2010 and 2012, so perhaps they have a “thing” for even-numbered Octobers now. And as the Giants proved both those postseasons, all you need to do is get in, catch fire and hold on to a hot streak. S.F. is not anyone’s favorite this time around to win the World Series, but it would be wrong to count out a roster that has so much playoff success under its belt.

2. The Pirates Are on a Mission

Last season, Pittsburgh was in the playoffs for the first time since 1992, and the team may have been just happy to be there. The Pirates lost a decisive Game Five in the NLDS to division-rival St. Louis, and they would like to get another shot at either the Cardinals or advancing to the NLCS in 2014. The Pirates have a lot of the same players from last year, so inexperience isn’t a factor for them this time around.

3. What Happened to San Francisco After June 8?

The Giants had a 42-21 record in early June, which was an unsustainable win percentage. They crashed to earth pretty hard for the next few months, posting a 22-37 record and finding themselves out of division contention on August 15. But S.F. recovered with a strong finish: the club went 24-16 down the stretch to make the postseason for the third time in five seasons. The Giants have overcome a lot of adversity this year, so they won’t blink at playing a road game in a hostile environment.

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4. No MVP Fade for McCutchen

After S.F. catcher Buster Posey won the 2012 NL MVP award, he dropped off big-time in 2013. Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen won the award last year, and the Pittsburgh star has been even better in 2014, improving his OPS by 41 points and making his fourth straight All-Star team this summer. He is as good as it gets in the major leagues today, and at age 27, he’s just entering his prime. What better way to prove that to the country by carrying the team on his back through the postseason?

5. MadBum Has Been There, Done That

The Giants definitely have the edge on the mound for this game, as their starter has earned some postseason stripes. In 2010 as a rookie, lefty Madison Bumgarner tossed eight innings of shutout baseball in the World Series against the Texas Rangers. In contrast, the Pirates starter tonight — Edison Volquez — has less than two innings of playoff pitching: he was the losing pitcher when Roy Halladay threw a no-hitter in the 2010 NLDS.

6. Pirates Early and Late

In early May, the two teams met in Pittsburgh for a three-game series, and the Pirates won two of those games. That’s when the Giants were playing very good baseball. In late July, S.F. was sinking, and Pittsburgh beat them two times out of three again, this time on the road. So it really didn’t matter when the Pirates played the Giants this year or where: Pittsburgh won the season series in convincing fashion. What that means for Wednesday night’s game, though, is anyone’s guess.

7. Momentum Is Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher

Despite the inexperience of Volquez in the postseason, the veteran righty might be the horse to back in this one. He hasn’t lost a start since July 21, actually, and Volquez also is pitching on normal rest. Meanwhile, Bumgarner may be rusty: he hasn’t pitched in a live game since last Tuesday, when he lost to Los Angeles Dodgers with the NL West division title still within reach for the Giants. MadBum has given up six runs in his last 13.1 innings, and he’s only started four games since the end of August.

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Sam McPherson is a freelance writer covering all things Oakland A’s. His work can be found on Examiner.com.

Playoff Pinch Hits: Four American League Teams Left To Chase World Series

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By Sam McPherson

Tuesday night’s raucous affair in Kansas City won’t soon be forgotten, although the Oakland Athletics probably will need to bury it in the pile of ridiculously crushing playoff defeats they’ve suffered in the last 15 years.

The Kansas City Royals’ 9-8 victory in 12 innings over the A’s leaves just four teams remaining now in the hunt for the 2014 American League pennant and a spot in the World Series, and three of the teams haven’t won the championship in a very long time. The most recent title for this quartet came in 2002 when the then-Anaheim Angels took home their first and only title.

For the first time since 1993, there are no Red Sox or Yankees in the postseason — and that is somewhat refreshing for the rest of the AL cities, of course. It’s down to Baltimore, Detroit, Kansas City and Los Angeles.

Let the wild rumpus start, as Maurice Sendak once wrote, although maybe the Royals have a head start on everyone else already.

1. The Team to Beat?

The Los Angeles Angels won 98 games this year, the most in the major leagues. They posted a +143 run differential, which is the best number of any remaining AL team. The Angels have home-field advantage throughout the league playoffs, too. But they have rotation issues, and it’s hard to win in the postseason without an ace or two at the top of the rotation. The Angels have two aging veterans — Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson — and then a few unknowns behind them (Matt Shoemaker and Hector Santiago). How the rotation fares against the Royals’ small-ball lineup will determine a lot in terms of L.A.’s postseason fortunes.

2. Missing the Big Bat

The Baltimore Orioles won the AL East for the first time since 1997, and they haven’t won the World Series — or even been to it — since 1983. The team will be without a few major contributors, too, in its ALDS matchup: third baseman Manny Machado has been out with injury for some time, and first baseman Chris Davis is currently serving a suspension for illegal-substance use. Baltimore also played most of the season without catcher Matt Wieters. Somehow, the Orioles still won 96 games, including 50 at home. How good would the team be with those players at full strength?

3. Can Detroit Finally Win It All?

The Detroit Tigers have been teasing us since 2006, and since then, they’ve lost two World Series in stumping fashion and come up short in a few other postseasons. Is this the season they finally break through and win it all for the first time since 1984? It may be a little less likely, as this squad probably is the least talented of Detroit’s five playoff teams since 2006. Knowing baseball and finicky fate, that could mean the Tigers will surprise us all.

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4. Run, Royals, Run!

Kansas City stole seven bases against an injury-depleted Oakland catching corps on Tuesday night. And since the Royals haven’t been in the playoffs since 1985 when they won it all, the team is energized by its long-suffering fan base as we all saw in the game against the A’s. The city believes in its boys in blue, and sometimes, that’s all that matters. Ask the 2010 San Francisco Giants, for example. Who doesn’t want to see the Royals succeed? That question is meant for those not in Baltimore, Detroit or Los Angeles, of course.

5. Five-Game Series Still Isn’t Enough

The ALDS deserves its own seven-game format, and while that would add extra games to the already-grueling and expanded playoff structure, five games with so much meaning just doesn’t cut it for squads that proved their worth over 162 games in the regular season. Any playoff series can be fluky, of course, so why not reduce the flukes as much as possible and make the LDS a seven-game affair? It will happen soon enough, of course, simply because of added revenue for all parties involved. It’s just too bad we won’t get to see more of these great matchups this year.

6. Prediction No. 1: Broken Halos

Call this an extended hangover from Tuesday night, but the Royals look like a team of destiny. They refuse to lose, and even if it was just one game, it was a huge game for the Kansas City franchise and fans. Early in the 2014 regular season, the San Francisco Giants looked like world beaters — but they crashed back down to earth. Then, it was the A’s everyone anointed next, and we all know what happened there. Now, the Angels have been the darlings for the past several weeks. Baseball teaches us to know our history, and that means L.A. is going down in the ALDS, probably in four games.

7. Prediction No. 2: Crouching Tigers

For the reasons noted above, it makes almost no sense to pick the Detroit Tigers to win this ALDS series. But the last two years, they were also the No. 3 seed in the same round of the playoffs, and they advanced to the AL Championship Series with hard-fought, Game Five victories on the road. They won’t need a Game Five to beat the Orioles this year; the Tigers will win it in four games, in front of the Motown fans.

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Sam McPherson is a freelance writer covering all things Oakland A’s. His work can be found on Examiner.com.

Playoff Pinch Hits: High Payrolls Reign Supreme In National League Playoffs

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By Sam McPherson

In the American League playoffs, the wild-card matchup was between teams with low payrolls — obviously one of them had to advance. But in the National League wild-card game, the team with the higher payroll — in fact, it was almost twice as high — handily won Wednesday night, making the NL Division Series contests a battle of some of the richest teams in the game.

Not only are these NLDS matchups seeded by regular-season record, but they’re also seeded by money spent this year — a sad and strange commentary on the state of MLB today. The top-seeded Washington Nationals take on the wild-card winner San Francisco Giants; those two teams are ninth and seventh, respectively, in baseball in terms of payroll. In the other matchup, the second-seeded Los Angeles Dodgers entertain the St. Louis Cardinals; L.A. was No. 1 in salary this year, the Cardinals 13th.

It’s a final four in more ways than one in the National League, and here’s what to keep an eye on in these best-of-five series that start Friday.

1. The Nats Are Primed

Back in 2012, the Nationals were everyone’s favorite; the team made the playoffs after a long journey from Montreal, and they had up-and-coming stars everyone wanted to see. But Washington collapsed in Game Five of the NLDS that year against St. Louis, blowing a six-run lead at home with their best pitchers on the mound — including giving up four runs in the ninth to lose the game and the series. And then the Nats missed the postseason last year. They won 98 games in 2014, and this could be their year, finally.

2. Can the Dodgers Buy a Championship?

It’s been 26 years since L.A. won the World Series, and the Southern California darlings have watched their Northern California rivals win two championships recently. That has to sting the Dodgers, so we all know they’ve spent crazy money in an effort to win. Well, they have another NL West title, but they need to win the Series in order to truly justify the expense, right?

3. Cards Want to Remain Flagship NL Franchise

The American League has the New York Yankees, and the National League has the St. Louis Cardinals. And the Redbirds would like to keep it that way by claiming their fifth NL pennant in the last 11 seasons. Plus, after losing the World Series last year to the Boston Red Sox, perhaps St. Louis is on a mission to wipe out that memory. Remember, they lost to Boston in 2004 before winning the championship in 2006.

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4. San Francisco Likes Even Numbers

Forget 1962 and 2002; these current San Francisco Giants believe even-numbered seasons belong to them now, after winning the World Series in 2010 and 2012 — but missing the playoffs in 2011 and 2013. They beat the Pittsburgh Pirates handily in Wednesday’s wild-card game, and now they’ll have to pull off another upset against the Nationals. But S.F. knows all about upsets, as they weren’t really favored to win any of the six series they did on their way to those two championships noted above.

5. MLB Does Need a Salary Cap

It’s somewhat ridiculous that these final four NL teams averaged $159M Opening Day payrolls, because teams like the Pirates (with their paltry $78M payroll) just cannot compete, realistically. Yes, the Kansas City Royals (and their $92M payroll) still fight on in the AL playoffs, but the other three teams they have to get past average almost $142M each in payroll. And remember, none of these numbers include midseason acquisitions, which are usually pricey. Commissioner Bud Selig is retiring, and the next commissioner has a chance to correct a lot of Selig’s mistakes — and this should be one of top priorities for the future competitive balance of the major leagues.

6. Kershaw, Kershaw, Kershaw

He’s just one starter, but the Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw is amazing. Like Justin Verlander in AL playoff series past, L.A. should be able to get Kershaw two starts against the Cardinals. But St. Louis has a deeper rotation, so there may not even be a Game Five. But if there is, L.A. would have the edge. And after losing to the Cards last year in the NLCS, the Dodgers might be on a mission, too. It’s hard to pick a winner in this series, but home-field advantage is the primary reason L.A. will advance here.

7. Rotation, Rotation, Rotation

The Nationals have the best postseason rotation left in the playoffs, and they’re healthy, too. Perhaps you have heard of Stephen Strasburg, and Jordan Zimmerman threw a no-hit game on Sunday to end the regular season. Doug Fister — formerly with Detroit — isn’t too shabby, either, and Gio Gonzalez was the Nats’ star ace in 2012. The Giants don’t have the same stable of horses they had in 2010 or 2012: Matt Cain is out, Tim Lincecum is banished, and Tim Hudson’s second-half ERA is sky high. While it’s hard to ever count the Giants out, they burned their ace— Madison Bumgarner — in the wild-card game. Expect Washington to win this series relatively handily, especially considering the S.F. hitting problems for half the season.

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Sam McPherson is a freelance writer covering all things Oakland A’s. His work can be found on Examiner.com.

Playoff Pinch Hits: Four LDS Matchups In Full Swing For Weekend Action

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By Sam McPherson

This is the busiest weekend of Major League Baseball playoff action, and all four League Division Series will be sorted out — mostly — over the weekend’s games to be played. If NCAA Basketball has its March Madness, this three-day stretch in October is what defines the MLB postseason.

Unlikely heroes, dashed dreams and crazy results litter the landscape of baseball’s largest playoff round, and 2014 will be no different. It’s already proved that, even before a pitch was thrown on Saturday.

At press time, the Baltimore Orioles already have a 2-0 lead on the Detroit Tigers in their best-of-five contest, while the San Francisco Giants continued displaying their postseason magic in taking a 1-0 series lead on the Washington Nationals. The Los Angeles Angels are looking to even up their series with the Kansas City Royals after an extra-innings loss in Game One Thursday, and the marquee matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Los Angeles Dodgers is a rematch of last October’s National League Championship Series.

Hang on, because it will be a bumpy weekend!

Detroit Bullpen Woes Surface Again

Both Thursday and Friday in Baltimore, the season-long challenges for the Detroit Tigers relief corps continued. The Orioles scored eight runs in the eighth inning on Thursday to win Game One, 12-3. Oon Friday in Game Two, Baltimore dropped four runs in the eighth inning on the way to a 7-6 victory at home.

Thursday’s game was just a one-run affair, in favor of Baltimore, when former relief darlings Joba Chamberlain and Joakim Soria combined to surrender six runs while registering just one out between them. Chamberlain, of course, was a member of the 2009 World Series champion New York Yankees, while Soria was once a dominant closer for the Kansas City Royals before injuries derailed his career. The eighth inning was cruel to Detroit once more on Friday, as the Orioles scored four runs to erase a three-run deficit and win the game: again, Chamberlain and Soria combined to give up four runs in the disastrous inning.

Now, the Tigers — who beat the Oakland Athletics in their previous two American League Division Series in 2012 and 2013 — head home to Comerica Park, down 0-2 and needing some magic and spark to keep their dream of Detroit’s first title since 1984 alive. Clearly, they better not give the ball to Chamberlain and Soria, though.

Kansas City Magic Is Alive and Well

The Royals won their second straight postseason game in extra innings on Thursday night, when third baseman Mike Moustakas — who struggled badly in 2014 with a .212 regular-season batting average — homered in the 11th innings to beat the AL’s best team in Game One of their ALDS matchup.

Kansas City is not known for their power bats: the team was dead last in the majors with 95 home runs this year. The Royals like to run, as evidenced by their wild-card game win over the A’s on Tuesday night when they stole a record seven bases.

Then the Royals did it again on Friday night: a home run by Eric Hosmer in the 11th, and suddenly, the “best team in baseball” is in an 0-2 hole. However, the Angels are a veteran team, and they have the fortitude to rebound from the opening losses. But it’s hard to overlook Kansas City’s mojo right now, that’s for sure.

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What’s in the San Francisco Water?

Another team that you can never underestimate in October is the San Francisco Giants. They beat the favored Pittsburgh Pirates on the road in the NL wild-card game Wednesday, and behind reclamation project Jake Peavy, they took Game One of the NLDS against the Washington Nationals on Friday afternoon. Peavy was terrible last year for the Boston Red Sox down the stretch and in the playoffs, and after a 1-9 start to this season, he joined the Giants and has turned it around.

Considering the magic S.F. somehow spun with castoffs and retreads like Pat Burrell, Cody Ross, Barry Zito and Marco Scutaro in winning World Series titles in 2010 and 2012, respectively, maybe we shouldn’t be surprised that Peavy out-dueled Stephen Strasburg in this series opener. But the Giants continue to defy logic and analysis by turning frogs into princes every time they’ve made it to the playoffs this decade.

Kershaw, Wainwright: Who Could Ask for Anything More?

That was the Game One matchup, but the 10-9 final score in the Cardinals’ favor wouldn’t suggest it. The Dodgers needed this one, after St. Louis thumped him in last year’s NLCS, sending the Cards to another World Series and denying L.A. its first Fall Classic appearance since the 1988 affair featuring Kirk Gibson and Orel Hershiser.

St. Louis needed to beat Kershaw or Zack Greinke at least once in this series to advance, and Wainwright is their best pitcher. Mission accomplished, although not the way it was planned. With the Dodgers holding home-field advantage here, the Cardinals have already stolen the edge they needed to in this series.

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Sam McPherson is a freelance writer covering all things Oakland A’s. His work can be found on Examiner.com.

Playoff Pinch Hits: It’s Do Or Die For Tigers And Angels On Sunday

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By Sam McPherson

The two American League Division Series resume on Sunday, and surprisingly, both matchups have been lopsided so far — at least in terms of series standings. The Baltimore Orioles won the first two games of their series against the Detroit Tigers at home, both with eighth-inning eruptions against a suspect Detroit relief corps. Meanwhile, the upstart Kansas City Royals — in the postseason for the first time since 1985 — have won twice in extra innings against the Los Angeles Angels, the best team in baseball this year.

Theoretically, the Baltimore-Detroit series is holding to form, with the home team winning the first two games. Now, Detroit just needs to win the next two at Comerica Park to hold serve. The KC-LA matchup is a bit of a shocker, but perhaps it shouldn’t be — the Royals have been playing very good baseball for awhile, and they clearly have some mojo on their side.

It will be tough for either Detroit or Los Angeles to come back and win their division series, but it can be done. The San Francisco Giants lost the first two games at home against the Cincinnati Reds in a 2012 National League Division Series before recovering to win the matchup and eventually the World Series. And there are AL examples, too: the New York Yankees lost the first two games at home in the 2001 ALDS before making it all the way to Game Seven of the World Series; and the 2003 Boston Red Sox lost the first two games on the road before winning their ALDS matchup.

(And of course, we all know about the 2004 Red Sox, right?)

The secret is to win one game at a time, because you can’t hit a three-win homer to win it all back at once. Patience will be key for both the Angels and Tigers, veteran clubs with many players who have been there and done that before in October.

Baltimore at Detroit: Calling Off the Tigers Bullpen

Detroit can hit, as we know. They have a strong lineup, and they have a strong rotation — even if not at 100 percent right now. The Tigers acquired David Price on July 31 for just this reason, too. When the lefty ace takes the mound on Sunday, the Tigers expect to win. Price has pitched in the postseason with success (for the Tampa Bay Rays), and hopefully, it works out better for Detroit than it did for the Oakland Athletics and Jon Lester.

The Tigers bullpen has been spotty all season, with closer Joe Nathan struggling most of the year. Detroit traded for Joakim Soria to augment Nathan at the back end, but Soria got lit up in both postseason games in Baltimore. To get his team back in the postseason, Price needs to go deep into Game Three and perhaps even throw a complete game. This will be his only start in this ALDS, so he needs to make it count.

The entire city of Detroit will be behind Price on Sunday. The Tigers have scored nine runs on 18 hits in this series, so they’re doing okay at the plate. Another four or five runs in Game Three should do the trick and extend the series.

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Los Angeles at Kansas City: Royal Flush?

With two extra-inning victories powered by home runs, it’s time for the Royals to do what they do best at home: run. We saw them snag those seven stolen bases against the Oakland A’s last Tuesday in the wild-card game, and while we shouldn’t expect that to happen again, Kansas City will be back in its element at Kauffman Stadium.

They also have “Big Game” James Shields on the mound against the Angels’ mediocre C.J. Wilson. In a familiar storyline, Shields was acquired before the 2013 season for these kinds of games. His nickname may not be the most deserved, as his poor outing against Oakland on Tuesday demonstrated, but Shields still is the best starter in the K.C. arsenal. Meanwhile, Wilson struggled this season for the Halos, and while he has postseason experience from his time with the Texas Rangers, this is the kind of game that could get to his fragile psyche right now.

Jered Weaver is set to come back on normal rest if there is a Game Four on Monday, and good teams close out series when they have the chance. You never want to give a talented team extra life.

Sunday Predictions: Ex-Rays Rule the Day

Look for both Price and Shields to draw upon their core upbringings with the Tampa Bay organization and thrive in the spotlight on Sunday. Both will go the distance in complete-game wins for their respective teams.

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Sam McPherson is a freelance writer covering all things Oakland A’s. His work can be found on Examiner.com.

Playoff Pinch Hits: Nationals One Loss Away From Another Playoff Disappoinment

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By Sam McPherson

Sometimes, you have to wonder why Major League Baseball even bothers with a 162-game season if the results mean so little come October. The grind of a long season can come to an abrupt halt in one or three games now in October, thanks to the expansion of the playoffs to include two wild-card teams. Six months of trends and patterns go out the window.

This is why last year’s World Series was the first one since 1999 to feature each league’s best regular-season team. There are just too many variables now in the baseball postseason. Ask the American League’s Los Angeles Angels, as they finished with the top record in that league yet also lost the first two games at home in extra innings — and then the series — to a wild-card team.

Anyone who claims to know and understand October baseball is fibbing, for if they really knew the secrets, they’d be buying lottery tickets or going to Vegas.

Why the Long Season?

Few teams know the vagaries of postseason baseball better than the Washington Nationals.

Twice in three years, the Nats have finished with the best record in the National League only to struggle mightily in the five-game National League Division Series against teams that couldn’t even win their own divisions over 162 games — not much of a reward. Teams with the better regular-season records really do deserve more of an advantage than one game in the LDS matchups.

MLB makes its teams fight for 162 games only to let their October destiny be decided by a sequence of proverbial coin flips, which erase all distinct advantages a team has earned over the prior six months. And teams like the Nationals — and this year the Angels — suffer for it.

Losing the Close Ones

After losing an 18-inning Game Two battle at home to the wild-card entry San Francisco Giants, the Nats travel across the country Monday to play Game Three at AT&T Park in San Francisco — and they face the Giants’ best starter now, after having burned their top two in the first two games back home.

Washington lost Game One, 3-2, and Game Two, 2-1, and nothing hurts more in the postseason than losing those one-run games. Funny, too, as San Francisco was only 18-22 in one-run games this regular season, while the Nationals were 26-22 in such games.

Once again, a playoff truth rears its ugly head: If you can’t close games in October, you’re playing golf sooner than you want to be.

Washington on the Ropes

The Nationals send Doug Fister (16-6, 2.41) to the mound against Madison Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98). That gives Washington a fighting chance, but the Nats need to wake up at the plate. They let 39-year-old Tim Hudson hold them to one run in Game Two, despite Hudson’s terrible second-half numbers (2-7, 4.73). The Nationals were third in scoring this year among NL teams, but you wouldn’t know it so far in this series.

The other problem Washington must watch right now is Drew Storen. He was on the mound for the two biggest losses in Nationals postseason history so far: Game Five of the 2012 NLDS against the Cardinals and Game Two of this NLDS, And he blew the save both times. What was that about losing the close ones?

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Dodgers Head to St. Louis Tied

In the other NLDS matchup, it’s Game Three in St. Louis, where the Cardinals will be hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers. After beating up Clayton Kershaw on Friday night, St. Louis let one get away on Saturday evening. The Cards tied the game in the eighth inning only to see Matt Kemp deliver a game-winning home run in the bottom of the inning.

St. Louis would prefer to win both games at home and avoid a Game Five in Los Angeles with Kershaw waiting for them, surely ready to impose himself upon hapless Cardinals hitters. Postseason veteran John Lackey (3-3, 4.30 for St. Louis in 2014) takes the mound for the Cardinals against the Dodgers’ Hyun-Jin Ryu (14-7, 3.38), who has had some nagging injuries lately.

The Cardinals have won the NL pennant four times since 2004, and they’d like to add another one this year. The Dodgers, of course, haven’t won much since the 1988 World Series. L.A. has squandered its pitching edge and its home-field advantage, and St. Louis is not the team you want to do that against.

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Sam McPherson is a freelance writer covering all things Oakland A’s. His work can be found on Examiner.com.

Playoff Pinch Hits: American League Championship Series Is Set

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By Sam McPherson

If anyone reading this picked the Baltimore Orioles and the Kansas City Royals as the American League finalists for 2014 back in spring training, we just don’t believe you.

Even as the playoffs began less than a week ago, very few — if any — would have had this matchup in the AL Championship Series when filling out the proverbial postseason bracket. Yes, the Orioles won their first AL East title since the 1990s, and yes, the Royals were bound for October for the first time in three decades, but even the most optimistic optimist probably would have had the other three AL playoff teams here first.

Oh well.

Baltimore swept the Detroit Tigers, participants in the last three straight AL Championship Series, while Kansas City eliminated the Los Angeles Angels, the team with the best regular season record in baseball this year, also in three straight.

It’s hard to argue with sweeps, but both series actually were much closer than they looked.

Orioles Never Flinched at Tigers Pitching

Much was made of both the Detroit Tigers and the Oakland Athletics — and their pitching staffs — all summer, but both came up empty in the first week of the postseason. Specifically, Detroit sent the last three AL Cy Young Award winners to the mound against Baltimore, and the Tigers didn’t get a single win out of the trio.

That’s shocking, in truth, but the Orioles hitters did what they needed to do against quality arms: hang in there. In Game One, Baltimore did just enough against Max Scherzer to get the lead, and then the Orioles stuck it to a suspect Tigers bullpen. When you score eight runs in the eighth inning, it’s a good day.

Against Justin Verlander in Game Two, the Baltimore lineup couldn’t get the lead, but they scored enough to stay close into the late innings. And once again, the Tigers bullpen collapsed in the eighth inning and blew the lead.

Orioles Simply Had Some Good Fortune

vIn Sunday’s finale, unheralded Bud Norris out-dueled David Price in a hard-fought, 2-1 victory.

Each of these games was within three runs in the eighth inning. Baltimore just prevailed each time, and sometimes you need that kind of good fortune in the postseason to advance. The Orioles earned their sweep, but it wasn’t an easy one, that’s for sure.

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Royals Shut Down High-Flying Angels Offense

We all knew the Los Angeles Angels starting pitching wasn’t healthy for the postseason, but the highest-scoring team in baseball surely would get enough runs to hand leads over to the stellar bullpen.

But Kansas City never let the Angels get those leads. In fact, L.A. took one lead in this entire series: the first inning of Game Three. The Angels held that lead for less than an inning, as the Royals scored three runs to answer in the bottom of the inning and never looked back.

Royals Bats Did the Talking

Like Baltimore, the Kansas City hitters won this series mostly against the L.A. bullpen — one that was pretty darn good for the second half of the season. With two extra-inning home runs from a team that doesn’t hit the long ball, and the Royals were on their way to a surprising sweep.

Overlooking the wild-card game against Oakland, the Royals pitching was lights out against the Angels. We knew it was a good staff, but we didn’t know it was that good.

Looking Ahead to the ALCS

The Orioles host Game One against the Royals on Friday, and the pitching matchups are not available yet. Each team will have four days of rest to reset its rotation, however, expect Chris Tillman for Baltimore and James Shields again for the Royals, making his third postseason start already. Shields didn’t pitch well against the A’s in the wild-card game, but he did just fine against the Angels in Game Three.

The Royals have the pitching edge, overall. And the Orioles will be without slugging Chris Davis for at least five more games, if the team decides they want him back after a drug suspension.

The seven-game series will move to Kansas City for Games Three, Four and Five, and expect the Royals to win it at home in Game Five. It’s just too hard to pick against them right now, even if the Orioles have their own momentum going.

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Sam McPherson is a freelance writer covering all things Oakland A’s. His work can be found on Examiner.com.


Playoff Pinch Hits: Kershaw And Dodgers Can’t Get Past Cardinals Yet Again

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By Sam McPherson

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers, again, in the postseason, eliminating them in four games with a comeback win over Clayton Kershaw on Tuesday. Kershaw posted a 21-3 record in 2014, along with a 1.77 ERA, but the Cardinals beat him twice in a week to advance to their fourth straight National League Championship Series.

Now, St. Louis will play the San Francisco Giants, who dispensed with the Washington Nationals in the other NLDS matchup.

For the Dodgers, it’s another playoff disappointment for the team with the highest payroll in baseball. The organization hasn’t reached the World Series since 1988, and despite winning two straight NL West division titles now, the Cardinals have blocked the L.A. pathway to the Series.

Kershaw was 0-2 in the NLDS, with a 7.82 ERA. Last year against St. Louis in the NLCS, the Dodgers ace was 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA. It’s safe to say the Cardinals own Clayton Kershaw in October.

When your ace goes down twice in four games, you’re not going to win too many playoff series; that’s a fact.

Cardinals Are Model of Consistency

St. Louis has made the postseason 11 times in the last 15 seasons. In nine of those Octobers, the Cardinals have played in the NLCS. It doesn’t get any better than that. Players have changed, and St. Louis switched managers after its last World Series win in 2011, but nothing really changes for the Cardinals. They just keep winning.

The NL’s model franchise now will play for the chance at its fifth World Series appearance in 11 years, and that’s Yankee-like consistency.

The Cards often fly under the radar until they suddenly are one of the last teams left — maybe because we take them and their success for granted. Baseball fans should know better by now.

Albert Pujols is gone, of course, but it was his replacement at first base — Matt Adams — who delivered the knockout punch to the Dodgers in Game Four on Tuesday. That’s emblematic of what the St. Louis organization does: restock, reload and repeat.

It works for the Cardinals, and they have the financial resources to make it work thanks to a loyal fan base in one of the best baseball cities in America — if not the best.

On the field, they have no rivals, really.

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Another Long Offseason in La-La Land

Dodgers Manager Don Mattingly will have to answer a lot of questions about this Game Four loss. Should he have left Kershaw in for the seventh inning on short rest? Why didn’t he start one of the most dynamic players in the game? Los Angeles had nine outs to go in order to force a Game Five back at Dodger Stadium on Thursday, but it didn’t happen.

By any measure, the Dodgers underperformed in 2014. They finished with the second-best record in the NL, sure, but with that payroll, the expectations are higher: World Series or bust. That’s unreasonable in this wild-card era of playoff insanity, of course, but don’t tell that to the Los Angeles organization or its fan base. Their expectations are set.

There’s no reason to think the Dodgers won’t do their own version of what the Cardinals do: restock, reload and repeat. Los Angeles just wants better results in October next time around. The Dodgers were close, again, but Kershaw actually will have to win some postseason games in 2015 if L.A. wants another championship.

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Sam McPherson is a freelance writer covering all things Oakland A’s. His work can be found on Examiner.com.

Playoff Pinch Hits: Giants Eliminate Nationals With Three One-Run Wins

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By Sam McPherson

It’s really true in baseball: once the playoffs start, the regular season means nothing.

Take for example the San Francisco Giants, a team with the lowest win total of any MLB postseason entrant in 2014. They went 2-4 against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the regular season, yet the Giants went to Pittsburgh and won the National League Wild Card Game. San Francisco also went just 2-5 against the Washington Nationals during the regular season, but now the Giants have eliminated the Nats in the NL Division Series in four games — the three S.F. wins came by one run apiece.

The Giants’ regular season record in one-run ball games was 18-22.

Oh, and there’s more.

S.F. starter Ryan Vogelsong posted an 0-4 record with a 5.33 ERA in September, but he gave up just two hits and one run in 5.2 innings against the best team in the National League this year in the Game Four clincher on Tuesday night. Throw in Tim Hudson’s Game Two effort — 7.1 innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts and no walks, after he posted a 4.73 ERA in the second half of the season — and you have even more inexplicable results from this patchwork, $160 million roster.

Nothing about the Giants makes sense, actually, but here they are in the NL Championship Series for the third time in five seasons and the fourth time in their last five playoff appearances dating back to 2002. In the wild-card era, S.F. either loses right away (1997, 2000, 2003) or they go to the World Series (2002, 2010, 2012). Are the Giants headed to the Series, again?

How Do They Do It?

Strangely, San Francisco has never finished in first place in back-to-back seasons, and with their current “streak” of even-numbered year postseason heroics, that certainly fits the franchise’s historical record. In 2010, the Giants hadn’t seen the postseason in seven years, but they overcame that inexperience to upset, in order: the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies and Texas Rangers on the way to the team’s first title since 1954. Journeymen like Aubrey Huff, Cody Ross and Pat Burrell played big roles, while the young pitching staff was lights out in October.

In 2012, they were the comeback kids: down 0-2 in the NLDS, they won three straight to eliminate Cincinnati. And then down 3-1 to the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLCS, S.F. won three straight again to advance. The Detroit Tigers were rested and ready in the World Series, but the Giants used their momentum for a sweep and second title. You may remember Pablo Sandoval closing his eyes and hitting home runs off Justin Verlander that in that Fall Classic.

On paper, San Francisco doesn’t look impressive, but on the field, their team play is dynamic. And that’s ironic, considering what long-time Bay Area sports announcer Don Rose once said about the team: “They should put down a layer of paper in Candlestick Park, because the Giants always look good on paper.”

Now, it’s the opposite at AT&T Park.

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Cards vs. Giants — Again

In 2012, St. Louis and San Francisco played that memorable NLCS. The Cards were the defending World Series champions, and they took a 3-1 lead in the series with a chance to clinch at home. But Barry Zito — in another unlikely postseason performance by a hitherto underwhelming Giants player — won a masterful Game Five on the road to stave off elimination, and S.F. won the series in seven games back home. Remember Marco Scutaro in the rain at AT&T? He couldn’t hit in Colorado that summer (.684 OPS), but after a trade to the Giants, he became Jeter-like (.859 OPS) and was named the NLCS MVP.

(Yes, the miracles in S.F. are statistically puzzling. Must be something in the Bay water at McCovey Cove.)

The Cardinals, of course, recovered to win the NLCS last year before losing in the World Series to the Boston Red Sox. The Giants missed the playoffs entirely in 2013, finishing under .500 on the year. Both are back now, and the two teams that have won the last four NL pennants will fight for another one starting on Saturday in St. Louis.

It’s hard to pick against either team, really, as both squads have veteran leadership, hard-earned success and playoff grit on their transcripts. Flip a coin? Yes. And the Giants have won a lot of these coin flips since 2010, as have the Cardinals.

Home-field advantage belongs to St. Louis, and since the Giants won the regular-season series between the two teams, four games to three, that means the Cardinals will win this NLCS in seven games.

After all, that’s the only thing that would make sense in the nonsensical world of MLB postseason baseball.

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Sam McPherson is a freelance writer covering all things Oakland A’s. His work can be found on Examiner.com.

Playoff Pinch Hits: Royals Spending Less Money To Win In MLB Playoffs

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By Sam McPherson

For the fifth year in a row, the National League pennant will go to the St. Louis Cardinals or the San Francisco Giants, two big spenders will payrolls well above $100 million.

In the American League, there is a refreshing opportunity for a small-payroll team — the Kansas City Royals — to crack the rich-boys club and make it to the World Series. A team with a smaller payroll hasn’t been this far in the AL playoffs since the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays lost in the World Series to the high-payroll Philadelphia Phillies.

Thus is the state of Major League Baseball, once again. High payrolls reign supreme, and only rarely do the little guys get a crack at daylight and eternal glory.

The big spenders in this year’s MLB “Final Four” are the Giants with an Opening Day payroll of $154 million. That was the seventh-highest figure in baseball this year, and San Francisco added to that with the midseason acquisition of starting pitcher Jake Peavy. In 2013, the Giants were sixth in payroll at $140 million, but they finished under .500 and missed the playoffs.

Evidently, even the smallest amount of extra money helps a team win more games.

Why Everyone Should Root for the Royals

The last team outside the top 15 in payroll to win the World Series was the then-Florida Marlins in 1997 — those Fish ranked 25th out of 28 teams in payroll.

Kansas City bumped its payroll up in the last few years in an effort to compete with the big boys in Detroit — the Tigers had a $162 million payroll this year on Opening Day — but the Royals are still a mere 19th overall in the majors. Their $92 million payroll is way behind the money the Giants are spending in an attempt to buy another title.

So watching the little guys take out the Los Angeles Angels and their $155 million payroll in the AL Division Series harkens back to the days of the Rays. And while the Oakland Athletics and their small payroll could never get out of the ALDS round in recent years, the Royals are living the dream for all the small-payroll teams that haven’t had this chance.

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Baltimore and St. Louis Are Efficient… and Wealthy

The Baltimore Orioles and the St. Louis Cardinals both have $100 million payrolls and then some, but they haven’t been as carefree as the Giants have been. They’ve actually exercised some control.

The Orioles were 15th this year in payroll, with a $107 million tab on Opening Day; the Cards were two spots above them, spending $111 million. You actually could argue the Giants are in a class by themselves in the championship round, as the other three teams are all at least $40 million behind them in payroll (or were on Opening Day).

Baltimore and St. Louis surely got more bang for their buck in the regular season than San Francisco did, winning more games for less dough. They won their divisions, while the Giants grabbed the last wild-card spot in the National League.

Everyone has advanced this far, but clearly, some teams did it more effectively on a firm budget than others.

It’s a Rich Team’s World Until Someone Proves Otherwise

In the end, spending money is still the way to go deep into the postseason. If the Orioles win the World Series in a few weeks, it will be quasi-victory for the little guys — even though Baltimore’s payroll is higher than half the teams in the league.

But if the Royals win? It would be a wonderful thing for baseball, bringing more hope to cities like Oakland, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay — competitive clubs that just haven’t been able to get over the hump and win it all despite being right there so many times in October.

The Cardinals and the Giants have both won multiple World Series in the last handful of years doing it their way — with lots of money. Wouldn’t it be nice for once to see a team win it all the old-fashioned way?

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Sam McPherson is a freelance writer covering all things Oakland A’s. His work can be found on Examiner.com.

Playoff Pinch Hits: National League Dominated Lately By Exclusive Group

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By Sam McPherson

No National League team has won three straight pennants since the St. Louis Cardinals did it from 1942-44, but only three teams have represented the NL in the World Series since 2008.

It’s an exclusive club in the NL now, and it is also a hard one to crack for teams outside of Philadelphia, St. Louis and San Francisco. The Phillies took back-to-back league flags in 2008-09, and they were denied a three-peat by the Giants in 2010. The Cardinals took the NL in 2011 and 2013, while the Giants grabbed it again in 2012.

Now, the NL Championship Series once again gives us… drumroll, please… St. Louis and San Francisco.

Considering the Cardinals previously won NL pennants in 2004 and 2006, as well, in the last 11 seasons, only the Houston Astros (2005) and the Colorado Rockies (2007) have broken through this tight grip on the league championship and a berth in the Series.

Go back a few more years: San Francisco also represented the NL in the 2002 World Series, with the then-Florida Marlins taking the flag in 2003.

To recap, by next week, 9 of the last 12 NL pennants will have been won by Philadelphia, St. Louis or San Francisco.

Reason #1: Money Rules the Day

In the end, it still does come down to spending money — and spending it wisely. The Phillies still have a huge payroll — $180 million on Opening Day in 2014 — but they haven’t made the postseason or finished above .500 since 2011 now, thanks to bad contracts.

But the Cardinals and the Giants are big spenders, of course, and St. Louis’ success has been the most consistent with 11 playoff berths in the last 15 years now. That’s an amazing run San Francisco cannot match: the Giants have only six playoff appearances in the same time frame—coinciding with their move into AT&T Park, and S.F. actually went from 2004-09 without making the postseason—despite a high payroll.

The Giants also missed the playoffs in both 2011 and 2013 after winning the Series, so the Cardinals are the best model for the other NL teams that want to get into the exclusive group at the top.

St. Louis spends a lot of money, of course, but they also spend it wisely.

Reason #2: Spending Money the Right Way

One thing you’ll notice about St. Louis is they don’t often sign players to bad contracts. The perfect example would be Albert Pujols, their homegrown star who was the centerpiece of the Cards’ lineup for the 2004, 2006 and 2011 pennant winners. The organization actually let him leave via free agency after the 2011 World Series win, rather than sign him to a bad contract like the one the Los Angeles Angels gave him.

Baseball is a business, and you have to treat the players like employees — even with the public relations hits that may come with those decisions. The Cardinals have a plan, and they stick to it.

This is one main reason why the Giants can’t match the Cardinals’ sustained excellence: S.F. General Manager Brian Sabean doles out a lot of bad contracts, including two last offseason. For example, he gave the declining Tim Lincecum $35 million for two years (2014-15), and the Freak isn’t even in the rotation any more. The Giants are on the hook for $18 million still next year for that contract, and Lincecum hasn’t been a good pitcher since at least 2011.

Sabean also has done what the Cards have not: rewarded older vets for past success. See the contracts given to Aubrey Huff, Marco Scutaro and Hunter Pence, for example, after World Series wins. And remember, Sabean also is the one who signed Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand to disastrous contracts back in the mid-2000s.

Considering all these puzzling signings and reckless spending, it’s actually pretty amazing the Giants have been able to win two NL pennants in the past five seasons—and might win a third next week.

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Reason #3: Replenishing the Farm System

This is where the Cardinals truly separate themselves from the Giants, in terms of sustained excellence and staying competitive year after year. St. Louis’ farm system keeps churning out good players to replace the ones who leave, meaning the Cardinals don’t need to overspend on free agents — whether their own or other teams’ players.

Pujols left, and St. Louis replaced him with Matt Adams — the guy who won the NL Division Series for them with his three-run home run off the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw in Game Four.

The Giants’ recent success was built around some key draft picks panning out on the mound: Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, etc. Also, they did well with Buster Posey, obviously. Those six seasons without a playoff spot produced some high draft picks for S.F.

But the farm system is dry right now in a few ways, and they’ll have to restock eventually — where Sabean likes to overpay to keep his roster intact, St. Louis replenishes the farm system year after year, with great success, via the draft and via smart trades.

For 2015, Look for Los Angeles and Pittsburgh to Break Through

In both the 2013 and 2014 NL postseason, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Pittsburgh Pirates have been sent home earlier than their talent levels may have warranted. That can change in 2015.

L.A., of course, is taking the Philadelphia route; their payroll is the highest in baseball, and it will remain so. They have some holes to plug, and they will. Here’s a wild prediction: Look for the Dodgers to acquire Alex Rodriguez from the New York Yankees to play third base in 2015. The Yankees probably would be happy to rid themselves of his contract, and the Dodgers can afford it. Also, A-Rod bought a house in Los Angeles recently. Convenient, for sure.

Pittsburgh has the ability to take the St. Louis route, and they’ve been modeling themselves after their NL Central brethren, anyway. With a little more luck, the Pirates can push deeper into the postseason in 2015 while sustaining their existing financial structure.

St Louis is the model NL franchise, really; the Giants have been a little lucky to escape their bad contracts, thanks to a few younger players who panned out. The Phillies’ approach isn’t for everyone, and it has buried them in the end after their five-year playoff run of excellence.

Look for more teams — like the Atlanta Braves, the Milwaukee Brewers, the Cincinnati Reds and the Rockies — to imitate St. Louis’ blueprint for future NL success.

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Sam McPherson is a freelance writer covering all things Oakland A’s. His work can be found on Examiner.com.

Playoff Pinch Hits: It’s All Kansas City In The American League Playoffs

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By Sam McPherson

The Kansas City Royals just keep on winning in the most impressive fashion, and nothing seems to be able to stop them from advancing in the 2014 American League playoffs right now.

With a Game One victory in extra innings and a Game Two win earned in the ninth inning, the Royals have taken a 2-0 lead on the Baltimore Orioles in the AL Championship Series. Dating back to 1985 — the last time the club was in the postseason — Kansas City has an eight-game win streak in the MLB playoffs right now.

Can you believe it? How did this happen?

Strong Second Half Surge

Kansas City finished the first part of the season before the All-Star break with a 48-46 record, which was a nice start for a team that finished over .500 the season before — it’s first in 10 years.

But the Royals went 41-27 in the second half to clinch the team’s first postseason spot since 1985, even though the offense scored fewer runs per game in the second half and the pitching didn’t improve its ERA, specifically.

Things just began to go K.C.’s way, and not much has changed in October.

Wild Wild-Card Win

The Royals fell behind 7-3 in the AL Wild Card Game to the Oakland Athletics, but they battled back against last year’s best October pitcher, Jon Lester. And then, after falling behind in extra innings, Kansas City battled back against the bullpen with the third-best ERA in the regular season to win the game.

The team refused to die, and the team just didn’t quit. The A’s had seven All-Stars on their roster this year, but the Royals were the better team in crunch time.

So much for All-Stars.

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Burying the Angels With Ease

The best team in baseball this season, the Los Angeles Angels, was no match for Kansas City in the AL Division Series. The Royals led almost the entire series, start to finish, save one half inning in the beginning of Game Three. The Angels were the highest-scoring team in baseball, but they couldn’t crack the K.C. pitching staff.

The first two wins, on the road, were both in overtime, and both came via the home run — the Royals hit the fewest home runs in the majors this year, but they’ve powered up in the postseason.

After stealing seven bases to run Oakland’s pitching staff ragged, it was power that buried the beast in the ALDS.

Clipping Orioles Wings

Now, the Kansas City Royals have done it again. They took the first two games of the ALCS on the road against the Baltimore Orioles, and now the team heads back to Kauffman Stadium for three games.

If their good fortune continues, the Royals will clinch a World Series spot by Wednesday night, and wouldn’t that be something?

The Royals were clearly a good enough team to push the Detroit Tigers for the AL Central division title, before settling for the top wild-card slot. Kansas City was good enough to overcome itself against the A’s, and they turned it up a notch to wipe out the Angels.

Now, the Orioles are finding out first hand what all the fuss was about in the other side of the AL bracket.

It doesn’t make any sense, and it doesn’t have to, really — it’s just the new reality of October baseball.

Anything can happen, and for some teams, it often does.

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Sam McPherson is a freelance writer covering all things Oakland A’s. His work can be found on Examiner.com.

Playoff Pinch Hits: Wild-Card Teams Dominating MLB Postseason

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By Sam McPherson

Like him or not, outgoing MLB Commissioner Bud Selig brought some changes to the game of baseball in the last two decades — most notably the expansion of the postseason in 1994 (even though it wasn’t until 1995 that we saw it happen for real).

The idea was that more playoff spots would keep more teams — and their fans — interested in the regular season for a longer period of time. Doubling the postseason participants from just four teams in 1993 to eight teams would add excitement to the game.

In 2012, Selig did himself one better, expanding to 10 playoff teams with the addition of a second wild-card team in both the American and the National leagues.

Now, in 2014, baseball is looking at a situation where the fifth-best team in the National League’s regular season might be on its way to the World Series, while the fourth-best regular season team in the American League is already halfway there.

Three of the top four teams in the regular season lost their League Division Series — and lost badly. The top two teams in the NL went a combined 2-6 against the lower-seeded teams, and in the AL, the best team from the regular season was swept by a wild-card team.

Is this what Selig wanted? Is this what baseball wants? What’s the point of winning your division over a 162-game season if you barely receive an advantage in the postseason for doing so?

Pittsburgh’s Dilemma

Consider the Pittsburgh Pirates, who had a postseason berth wrapped up already heading into the final game of the season. But they still had a shot at the NL Central title, and they went for it.

Going for the division title probably cost them their chance to win the wild-card game three days later, because they spent their best starter on Game 162 trying to win the division. They would have been better off sandbagging the game and resting Gerrit Cole.

Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants were eliminated from the NL West race a few days earlier, and they were able to rest their best starter and save ace Madison Bumgarner for the wild-card game.

One decision looks smart now; the other, not so much. Was it worth it for Pittsburgh? Certainly not.

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Angels and Nationals: Home-Field Disadvantage

The Los Angeles Angels won 98 games this season, and the Washington Nationals won 96 games, making each the top team in their respective league. But in the five-game LCS setup, that earned them just one extra game at home — one they never even got to use. Sure, they both lost two games at home right away to wild-card teams, so you could argue they lost their advantage.

But shouldn’t 162 games means more than just those two home playoff games? Not the way it’s currently set up in MLB. There’s little to no advantage in a short series for the higher-seeded team.

Just once since 1999 have the top teams in each league advanced to the World Series, and that was last season when the Boston Red Sox and the St. Louis Cardinals made it to the final round. Shouldn’t the 162-game season give a better advantage to the top teams?

Wild-Card World Series

For three straight years in the early 2000s, a wild-card team won the World Series: the 2002 Angels, the 2003 Marlins and the 2004 Red Sox. The Cardinals won the Series in 2011 as a wild-card team, and we can’t forget those 1997 Marlins. Three straight years in the mid-2000s, wild-card teams also lost the World Series: the 2005 Houston Astros, the 2006 Detroit Tigers and the 2007 Colorado Rockies.

The 2000 New York Mets and the 2002 Giants also lost World Series as wild-card teams.

Five wild-card teams have won the World Series, and five other wild-card teams have lost it. That’s 10 wild-card teams in the World Series in the last 19 seasons, with a good chance at least one — if not two — will make it in 2014.

While Selig’s little “experiment” has opened up the postseason to more teams, it’s also cheapened the value of winning the division and playing the best over the previous six months.

It has reduced the postseason to the proverbial coin flip, and teams that play better over 162 games deserve better odds than that in the MLB playoffs.

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Sam McPherson is a freelance writer covering all things Oakland A’s. His work can be found on Examiner.com.

Playoff Pinch Hits: Predicting The World Series Matchup

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By Sam McPherson

Monday’s rainout of Game Three in the American League Championship Series between the Baltimore Orioles and the Kansas City Royals provides a unique chance to look forward, evenly, at both League Championship Series and explore the four possible World Series matchups ahead.

Who Wins provides a fun tool to look ahead at the projected outcomes of each seven-game series based on past precedent. We can even include seven-game series results from the National Basketball Association and the National Hockey League, too, in addition to the Major League Baseball past.

Will we get Baltimore-St. Louis in the World Series? Or will it be Kansas City-San Francisco? Maybe you’re hoping for Baltimore-San Francisco or Kansas City-St. Louis? Each team has been rated on its probability to reach the Fall Classic below, based on historical precedent.

Kansas City: Strong

In MLB history for the LCS, no team has ever won the first two games on the road and lost the series. This has happened 11 times previously, and every time, the team up 2-0 and heading home for the next three games has prevailed.

On this note, the Royals look like a good bet to reach the Series.

When you add in NBA and NHL histories, 36 of 37 teams in the Royals’ semifinals position have advanced.

For all seven-game series, regardless of round, the MLB success rate is 87.5%, and for all three sports, the probability is 81.1% that Kansas City will advance.

St. Louis: Solid

Strangely, MLB teams in the Cardinals’ position — losing Game One at home before winning Game Two at home — have fared pretty well in LCS history. In the 16 previous circumstances where the higher-seeded team lost Game One and won Game Two at home, the higher-seeded team went on to win 11 times for a .688 series win percentage.

When you add in NBA and NHL semifinal series, the number drops a bit: a .582 series win percentage, based on a 39-28 record in such situations.

For all seven-game series, regardless of round, the MLB success rate in St. Louis’ situation is 64.1%, and for all three sports, the probability is 57.3% that the Cardinals will advance.

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San Francisco: Not So Strong

Again, the numbers for San Francisco obviously are the opposite of those for St. Louis. It’s very hard to sweep the middle three games at home in an MLB series, although it has been done.

The Cardinals themselves did it to the Detroit Tigers in the 2006 World Series, matching the win pattern for this NLCS. After taking Game One in Detroit, St. Louis lost Game Two on the road. The Cards then came home and swept the Tigers in three straight at Busch Stadium.

That’s the scenario the Giants are hoping for, because they probably do not want to go back to St. Louis for Games Six and possibly Seven.

Baltimore: Weak

Obviously, the numbers for the Orioles are opposite those of the Royals. Baltimore has a tough task ahead of it, but most baseball fans probably remember the 1996 World Series when the Atlanta Braves won the first two games in dominating fashion over the New York Yankees in The House That Ruth Built.

And even after losing Game Three at home, the Braves looked good in Game Four — they had a six-run lead in the sixth inning. The Yankees chipped away a bit, but even in the eighth inning, Atlanta had a three-run lead. But they ended up losing in 10 innings, and the Yankees dynasty was born.

The Orioles know it is possible, but it’s an admitted long shot.

Prediction Based on Historical Probability: Another I-70 Series

Back in 1985, the Royals and the Cardinals played a seven-game Fall Classic that is well known for a blown call in the bottom of the ninth inning in Game Six. St. Louis was three outs away from winning the Series, but first base umpire Don Denkinger incorrectly called Jorge Orta safe at first base. Kansas City rallied for a 2-1 victory and then rolled the Cardinals in Game Seven to win their only World Series title.

Perhaps the Royals are on destiny’s path this year, just so St. Louis can get revenge on them for that miracle from 29 years ago.

Only time will tell, and the Baltimore Orioles or the San Francisco Giants may have a lot to say about that concept of “destiny” — those two teams may want to make this a true orange-and-black Halloween World Series.

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Sam McPherson is a freelance writer covering all things Oakland A’s. His work can be found on Examiner.com.


Playoff Pinch Hits: Are The Giants Headed For A 7-Game Series?

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By Sam McPherson

The San Francisco Giants won the battle that was Game Three on Tuesday, but all parties involved know the war — a.k.a the National League Championship Series — is far from over. What else could we expect from the two teams that have won the last four NL pennants and also played a seven-game NLCS just two Octobers ago?

Game Three featured a fast start by the Giants, a comeback by the St. Louis Cardinals and a 10th-inning surge by the home team to take the victory at AT&T Park: another roller coaster ride, similar to Game Two. Every game left on the slate could be just as bumpy.

San Francisco has won four one-run games this postseason already, while losing only one. The team was 18-22 in the regular season when the score was that close. That’s the kind of fortune you need in the playoffs to advance, and the Cardinals know it.

Let’s look ahead to the next two games on Wednesday and Thursday.

Game Four: Miller vs. Vogelsong

The Cardinals would appear to have the pitching edge in this matchup, but everyone has seen the Giants get amazing postseason performances out of seemingly washed-up players (Cody Ross in 2010, Barry Zito and Marco Scutaro in 2012). Ryan Vogelsong is another of San Francisco’s reclamation projects: he posted a 6.00 ERA in parts of four seasons (2003-06) with the Pittsburgh Pirates before being out of the majors for four seasons (2007-10).

In the last four seasons (2011-14) back in the show with the Giants, he has put together a 3.78 ERA. Meanwhile, Shelby Miller, who was a first-round draft pick for St. Louis in 2009, has thrown 370 major league innings in the last three seasons, to the tune of a 3.33 ERA.

Both pitchers struggled in 2014 overall, posting ERA+ marks below league average. While Miller posted a 2.92 ERA in the second half of the season, he also had a 4.14 ERA on the road for the year. Likewise, Vogelsong posted a 3.06 ERA at home in 2014, but his second-half numbers (3-6, 4.20 ERA) don’t inspire confidence.

Scoring first seems to be key in this series, even though the last two games featured comebacks by the team that feel behind early.

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Game Five: Wainwright vs. Bumgarner II

Adam Wainwright is not himself right now. He went 20-9 this year with a 2.38 ERA, but he hasn’t lasted five innings in either of his postseason starts. He’s a better pitcher than the Giants’ Madison Bumgarner, and he has the pedigree to prove it. Not that Bumgarner is any slouch, but he had a 4.03 ERA at home this year, strangely.

Of course, the Giants won this matchup on the road in Game One, and there’s little reason to think they can’t win it again in Game Five — unless the real Wainwright shows up. Remember, he’s been a member of three World Series teams in St. Louis, closing out the championship in 2006 and starting key games in 2011’s title run. His 3.17 career postseason ERA is nothing to dismiss, but with catcher Yadier Molina also banged up, Wainwright just may not be at his best.

Prediction

The Giants would like to complete a home sweep, obviously, but the Cards are too tough to let that happen. Look for St. Louis to win Game Four with the slight pitching advantage (youth and talent beating guile and guts), leaving Bumgarner and a weakened Wainwright to battle it out in Game Five.

It’s hard to pick against MadBum in Game Five, even if his home numbers this year are downright ugly.

This series is going back to St. Louis for Game Six with the home team needing to win both games to advance to its fifth World Series in the last 11 seasons.

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Sam McPherson is a freelance writer covering all things Oakland A’s. His work can be found on Examiner.com.

Playoff Pinch Hits: Kansas City Royals’ Streak May End In World Series

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By Sam McPherson

With yet another win fueled by defense and pitching on Wednesday, the Kansas City Royals claimed their first American League pennant since 1985 with a 2-1 victory in Game Four of the AL Championship Series. The win completed a four-game sweep over the Baltimore Orioles and cemented a perfect 8-0 run through the AL playoffs for Kansas City.

Combined with their 41-22 finish to the regular season, the Royals come into the World Series on a fantastic roll, comparable to the 2007 Colorado Rockies. Whether Kansas City suffers the same fate as those Rockies remains to be seen, as the San Francisco Giants still battle the St. Louis Cardinals for the National League pennant.

To refresh your memory, the Rockies finished the 2007 regular season by winning 14 of their last 15, including a Game 163 to clinch the NL wild card spot. Colorado then went 7-0 through the NL playoffs to reach the Fall Classic. But the hottest team in baseball’s postseason that year had to wait around for a week while the Boston Red Sox won the ALCS in seven games over the Cleveland Indians, and the rust morphed into a sweep for Boston in the Series.

These Royals deserve better, especially after playing almost perfect baseball since the wild-card circus against the Oakland Athletics two weeks ago. Kansas City outscored the best team in baseball — the Los Angeles Angels — by a combined 15-6 score for a three-game sweep in the AL Division Series. Then the Royals outpaced the Orioles, 18-12, in four games for the AL pennant.

Kansas City won slugfests on the road, and Kansas City won squeakers at home. This is a team that just knows how to win, evidently.

On this 50-22 stretch right now, the Royals will have momentum on their side — and their rotation set — for Game One of the Fall Classic on October 21 at Kauffman Stadium, thanks to the AL’s victory in the All-Star Game this summer.

Pitching

The Kansas City rotation is pretty formidable, obviously. “Big Game” James Shields (14-8, 3.21 ERA during the regular season) will take the mound for the Royals in Game One of the Series, and this is why the Royals traded for him prior to the 2013 season. He hasn’t been perfect this postseason, but he hasn’t lost a game, either, of course.

Yordano Ventura (14-10, 3.20) and Jason Vargas (11-10, 3.71) have backed Shields ably in the postseason, and even Jeremy Guthrie (13-11, 4.13) has pitched well. Manager Ned Yost will have some time here to sort out his pitching order with the five days off before the team’s next game day.

The bullpen is reminiscent of some of the best in history: Kevin Herrera (1.41 in 70 innings pitched during the regular season), Wade Davis (1.00 in 72 IP) and Greg Holland (1.44 in 62.1 IP) are a formidable trio, very difficult to score off of at the end of games. If Kansas City has the lead after six innings, it’s often over for the opponent.

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Defense

Three of top 14 defensive players in MLB this year — based on defensive Wins Above Replacement value — play for the Royals: center fielder Lorenzo Cain, left fielder Alex Gordon and catcher Salvador Perez. Cain was named the ALCS MVP, and Gordon is a three-time Gold Glove winner — perhaps soon a four-time winner. Perez also won a Gold Glove in 2013.

Outfielder Jarrod Dyson, who doesn’t even start for the Royals but often enters games as a pinch runner and defensive replacement, finished 20th overall in defensive WAR, as well. Gordon was 10th in overall WAR to lead the team.

This a team that fields the ball very well. It’s an underrated skill in today’s game, but with the Royals’ success, you have to imagine there will be a lot of copycats in 2015.

Offense

Much has been made about how the Kansas City bats have perked up in the postseason, and yes, the team has hit more home runs than you’d expect from the squad that hit only 95 the entire season.

First baseman Eric Hosmer, third baseman Mike Moustakas and designated hitter Billy Butler combined to hit just 33 HRs this season, but each had strange power outages. Hosmer hit 50 homers from 2011-13 before dropping to nine this year; Moustakas posted a career-low slugging percentage; Butler hit 29 HRs in 2012 before dropping off to nine this year.

So the power outage may have been just a 2014 regular-season issue, as clearly, these guys can hit. We really shouldn’t be surprised by the power being shown in the postseason.

Everyone knows the Royals can run, too, so you’re looking at a capable offensive lineup if they play up to their potential.

World Series Outlook

It’s hard not to like a team that hasn’t lost yet in the postseason, but it’s also unreasonable to expect the Royals to not lose again, either. Can they go 12-0 through the playoffs? Doubtful, and that’s no knock against Kansas City. If anyone has the confidence to do it, these kids in K.C. do.

Another reminder: three times since 2006, a team cruised through its LCS matchup in four games, while the other LCS went seven games. And each time, the team that swept its LCS got hammered in the World Series: the 2006 Detroit Tigers, the aforementioned 2007 Rockies and the 2012 Tigers.

Kansas City’s Fall Classic fate may well rest in the hands of the other LCS result.

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Sam McPherson is a freelance writer covering all things Oakland A’s. His work can be found on Examiner.com.

Admit It Giants Fans, Nobody Else Wants Us To Win

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By Sam McPherson

Back in 2010 the baseball world was backing the “Fear the Beard” Giants in their improbable run to the World Series. Two world titles later, don’t expect a repeat of the national good will.

There are two primary reasons the nation’s baseball fans will be rooting for the Kansas City Royals, en masse, next week. First, the Royals are a feel-good story the game hasn’t seen since at least 2007, if not longer. Second, fan bases outside of San Francisco are getting a little tired of the Giants’ recent success. The same goes for the St. Louis Cardinals, though it’s a moot point now.

Remember a couple of weeks to when the Royals needed late inning heroics to get past the A’s? Back then they were 16-1 to win it all. Now they’ve won 8 straight postseason games and have home field advantage in the series. They’ve also

That kind of Cinderella story ranks up there with the great plot lines of postseasons past. Think about the surprise teams in the World Series over the past decade-plus since the New York Yankees failed to finish off a four-peat in 2001. When the Yankees lost to the upstart Arizona Diamondbacks in that seven-game Fall Classic, we all started believing the “little guys” could come through in the end and win big:

* In 2003, it was the then-Florida Marlins upsetting the Yankees.

* In 2004, the Boston Red Sox won their first title since 1918.

* In 2005, the Chicago White Sox won their first championship since 1917.

* In 2006, the Cardinals won their first title since 1982 in a season where they won only 82 regular-season games.

* In 2007, the Colorado Rockies had a magical run to their first World Series appearance.

* In 2008, the Tampa Bay Rays conquered all in the American League to prove a small-payroll team could compete.

* In 2010, the Giants won their first championship since 1954.

The Royals fit into many of these categories, actually.

Kansas City is a small-payroll team that hasn’t been in the postseason for 29 seasons. They’re going to be facing a bigger-payroll team in the World Series. The Royals’ run to the Fall Classic has been magical. That sort of thing captures America’s ear.

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The Giants are no longer the ‘little guys’…

The Giants won the World Series in 2010 and 2012. And they’ll be playing the Royals in the World Series this year. Outside of San Francisco, few fans want to see another big-payroll team dominate the postseason the way the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees have done at times in the last 15 seasons.

If the Giants didn’t have their recent success on their resume, they’d be just as likable as the Royals on a national level: a team that hasn’t won in a long time always inspires the fans. But in a strange twist, the 2014 Royals are a lot like those 2010 Giants. A matchup between those two teams — both playing in a World Series for the first time in decades — would have been intriguing (though obviously impossible). As it stands, only the Royals fit the profile.

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Sam McPherson is a freelance writer covering all things Oakland A’s. His work can be found on Examiner.com.

Playoff Pinch Hits: Royals And Giants An Unlikely World Series Pairing

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By Sam McPherson

Depending on your point of view, the 2014 World Series matchup between the Kansas City Royals and the San Francisco Giants is either everything you wanted — or nothing like you imagined.

If the latter fits, you’re certainly not alone.

Independent statistical analysis based on Wins Above Average shows the Royals were just the sixth-best team in the American League this year, while the Giants were the fourth-best National League team. This is the equivalent of two 9-7 teams playing in the Super Bowl, as for the first time in MLB history, neither Fall Classic participant won 90 games in the regular season.

If unpredictability is was you like, you’re happy as a clam right now — but if you live anywhere but Kansas City and San Francisco, you’ve probably moved on to the NFL, college football and the NHL by now.

Both the Giants and the Royals got here by playing mistake-free baseball in the first three rounds, defeating “better” teams with sounder fundamentals and good fortune. San Francisco knocked off Pittsburgh, Washington and St. Louis to get here, while Kansas City eliminated Oakland, Los Angeles and Baltimore.

Don’t let anyone suggest that neither team deserves to be here: with 16 wins and only two losses combined in the postseason, these two teams have played better for the past two weeks than the other teams — even if they didn’t come near playing as well in the prior six months.

That’s the beauty and horror of the MLB playoffs now: Bud Selig’s wild-card brainchild keeps more cities and fans interested in the game into September, but it alienates more cities and fans much faster now in October. It’s a tradeoff that continues to divide purists and progressives.

We’ll look more closely at both teams before Tuesday’s Game One in Kansas City at Kauffman Stadium. But for now, let’s review the individual MVPs of each team on their path to the World Series.

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Kansas City Royals

The offensive MVP for the Royals has to be Eric Hosmer. The first baseman struggled during the season with just nine home runs and a .716 OPS. In the postseason, however, he’s been on a tear. Hosmer has hit .448 with a 1.314 OPS, two home runs and eight RBI. That’s quite a jolt for the offense.

The pitching MVP for Kansas City is the three-headed monster at the back end of the bullpen. They were all outstanding in the regular season, but righty Kevin Herrera, lefty Wade Davis and closer Greg Holland have been even better in the playoffs. The trio has surrendered just three runs in 25 2/3 innings, while Davis has two wins and Holland six saves.

You don’t want to fall behind the Royals after the sixth inning; that’s a surefire method for losing. Just ask the Angels and the Orioles.

San Francisco Giants

No single San Francisco hitter has been as dominating at the plate as Hosmer; it’s definitely been more of a team effort. Just look at the spreading of the wealth so far: Shortstop Brandon Crawford hit a huge grand slam in the first game of the playoffs, and second baseman Joe Panik hit a big home run in the last game of the NL Championship Series. Oh, and don’t forget Travis Ishikawa’s walk-off shot, either.

If you’re struggling to figure out who those guys are, you’re not alone — especially Panik and Ishikawa. They joined a long list of “average guys” who stepped up in October for the Giants over the last handful of Octobers. But overall, the offensive MVP award can go to first baseman Brandon Belt — he missed a lot of the regular season with health issues, but his six RBI lead the S.F. team this postseason.

On the pitching side, Madison Bumgarner has assumed the top spot of a decimated rotation (no Matt Cain, no Tim Lincecum, etc.). He’s 2-1 with a 1.42 ERA this postseason, giving up just 19 hits in 31 2/3 innings so far. The rest of the rotation is somewhat spotty, so MadBum’s anchoring of the staff has been huge for the Giants.

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Sam McPherson is a freelance writer covering all things Oakland A’s. His work can be found on Examiner.com.

Playoff Pinch Hits: James Shields-Wil Myers Trade A Success For Royals

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By Sam McPherson

In December 2012, Kansas City Royals General Manager Dayton Moore made one of the biggest trades in recent memory, acquiring Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher James Shields in exchange for four minor-league players.

At the time, the Royals hadn’t had a winning season since 2003, and even that one season was the team’s only winning season since 1993. This was a franchise in despair, so to speak. So why were the Royals acquiring “Big Game” James? Certainly, there were no big games in Kansas City’s future.

Giving up Wil Myers in the deal also was a head-scratching move, as Myers was considered one of the best young prospects in the game at the time. How could the Royals think they would be ready to compete without Myers as a centerpiece of their future?

Well, clearly Moore knew what he was doing: the Royals finished with 86 wins in 2013, and even though they didn’t make the postseason, the Kansas City organization was heading in the right direction. So the small-payroll team picked up Shields’ contract option for $13.5 million in 2014.

(Myers went on to win the American League Rookie of the Year award for the Rays in 2013, by the way.)

The rest is now a part of MLB history and Kansas City lore.

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Shields Leads the Rotation in 2014

The Royals received 151 starts from a core group of five starters this year, and Shields was at the top of that rotation — without a doubt, as the other four guys are not even close to being household names, and that was especially true at the start of the season.

Jeremy Guthrie is an 11-year veteran with a 4.23 career ERA, but he’s now won 28 games for the Royals in two years next to Shields. After leading the AL in losses twice (2009 and 2011 with Baltimore), Guthrie has found his groove with Kansas City.

Nine-year journeyman Jason Vargas joined the Royals in 2014 and had his best season ever (3.71 ERA). After pitching for four other teams with limited success, Vargas also found his spot in the K.C. rotation behind Shields.

Rookie Yordano Ventura posted a 3.20 ERA this season, winning 14 games in the process. Fifth starter Danny Duffy posted a 2.53 ERA in a career-high 149 1/3 innings, in his fourth season with the Royals.

This is an eclectic mix of starters: one All-Star with big-game experience, two journeymen starters who complemented Shields and two young guys just hitting their strides without facing any demand or pressure to be the No. 1 guy too soon.

Shields has stabilized the staff, of course, with his experience and achievements. He’s the only pitcher in Tampa Bay history to win a World Series game, and as a member of that organization, he knew what it was like to play for — and be successful at — a small-market team in this big-money MLB era.

Yes, Dayton Moore knew exactly what he was doing when he acquired Shields, as the fortunes of his franchise have dramatically increased since Shields came to town.

Meanwhile…

The four minor-leaguers Kansas City sent to Tampa Bay are doing okay, as well, and they may yet lead the Rays to some more postseasons in their future.

But Myers — after posting a .293 average in 2013 — slumped through injuries this year, hitting just .222 in 87 games. His combined totals in two years with the Rays are 660 at-bats, 19 home runs, 88 RBI, 11 stolen bases and an .724 OPS.

Right now, it looks like the Royals got the best of this deal, even if one of the other players in the deal — starter Jake Odorizzi — won 11 games this year in the majors, striking out 174 batters in 168 innings.

In time, both those guys could be cornerstones for more Tampa Bay success, but there’s no doubt Moore pulled the trigger on a risky deal and has won big.

For small-market teams like Kansas City, Oakland and Tampa Bay, these are the kinds of deals they have to risk in order to have a chance against teams like the San Francisco Giants and their $150 million-plus payrolls.

We’ve seen the Royals and the Rays make the World Series with small payrolls, and everyone knows the “Moneyball” successes the A’s have had in getting to the playoffs eight times in the last 15 years, too.

Sometimes the big trades work for the little guys, and sometimes they don’t. In this case, Kansas City won the trade, and the organization will never have to defend its decisions again — not for a long time, especially if they go on to beat San Francisco in the Fall Classic with Shields leading the way.

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Sam McPherson is a freelance writer covering all things Oakland A’s. His work can be found on Examiner.com.

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